Railway Infrastructure Intelligent Maintenance & Inspection
Zhigang TAO, Baoqing GUO, Bin ZHOU, Hongmei SHI, Wei ZENG, Guangye LI
To address the low prediction accuracy of the Track Quality Index (TQI) in heavy-haul railways, this study proposes an analysis method based on machine learning. First, a raw dataset comprising 303 381 track inspection and maintenance records collected between 2015 and 2023 from 2 906 sections of a heavy-haul railway operated by a major energy enterprise is utilized. Following data cleaning, the dataset was categorized into four track section types based on geometric characteristics: neither gradients nor curves, curves without gradients, gradients without curves, and both gradients and curves. Second, the data for each category were processed into sequential datasets spanning three consecutive months without maintenance interventions. Sequences exhibiting an excessively large range in the TQI were then eliminated using anomaly detection methods. Third, using the TQI and its seven components (left-rail longitudinal level, right-rail longitudinal level, left-rail alignment, right-rail alignment, gauge, cross level, and track twist in triangle form) from the first two months of each sequence as inputs, six machine learning models, such as Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and linear regression, are leveraged to perform rolling predictions of the TQI for the third month. Finally, the predictive performance of the different models across various section types is comparatively analyzed. The results indicate that when using the six machine learning models to predict the TQI across the four section types, the coefficient of determination R² between the measured and predicted values exceeds 0.94 for all models, suggesting highly accurate and reliable prediction performance. Among the six models, the RNN demonstrates particularly outstanding performance, achieving an average R² of 0.967 5 with a standard deviation of ±0.000 8 across various test sets. Specifically, for the four representative track sections, the prediction R² values are 0.990 1, 0.974 3, 0.988 3, and 0.988 9, respectively. Compared to the other five models, the RNN yields more stable prediction results and exhibits greater adaptability to diverse scenarios. This study demonstrates that machine learning methods effectively meet the demands of TQI prediction in heavy-haul railways, providing a valuable reference for establishing scientific tamping maintenance schedules and advancing intelligent track maintenance practices.